Nevada Gaming Control Board Incorrectly Reports Super Bowl Win, Hold Numbers

The Super Bowl LVII is over with another NFL season down. The Kansas City Chiefs upset the Philadelphia Eagles by just three points, winning 38-35.

So, what’s next? Naturally everyone wants to know all of the gambling numbers from all angles. This includes how much was wagered on the game and which team, as well as how much sports books might have made overall along with hold percentages.

In the state of Nevada, the Gaming Control Board releases numbers every year. However, further analysis determined the win amounts were incorrectly reported for the last two Super Bowls.

In short, the Nevada sportsbook win and win percentages were overstated and numbers were lower than originally reported. Win and hold percentages were off by more than 50% in the 2023 Super Bowl, and wrong by about 30% in 2022’s big game.

Super Bowl holds in Nevada were lower than reported

Here is a look at the win/hold numbers that were originally incorrectly reported: 

2023: Book win of $11.2 million, 7.4% hold
2022: Book win of $15.4 million, 8.6% hold

The correct, adjusted numbers are as follows:

2023: Book win of $5.4 million, 3.6% hold
2022: Book win of $11 million, 6.2% hold

Numbers reported are not audited, and press releases with information are provided for accuracy to stakeholders and as a courtesy for informational purposes. 

There are a total of 185 sportsbooks in Nevada and they took in $153.2 million in 2023 Super Bowl betting. This is a 14.8% decline from 2022, according to reports released post-game on Monday.

Looking at the last ten Super Bowls, 2014 had the highest hold percentage at 16.5%, with a win total of $19.6 million. The lowest was in 2018, with 0.7% hold percentage and $1.1 million book win. 

Defining hold percentages in the sports betting world

What is a hold percentage? This refers to the amount of “tax” withheld by sportsbooks based on each dollar wagered. Percentages fluctuate based on the type of bet being placed.

Overall, sportsbooks decide the percentages, and while it would be nice to see even money on both sides, that is not realistic. Sportsbooks make their profits in the long run by holding a high amount of percentages.

When calculating probabilities while placing bets, you might notice that adding the two sides together will be a number greater than 100. This is due to the “tax” that is charged when sportsbooks take your action. 

If you add up the probability of the outcomes and subtract it by 100, that is how much the sportsbook is holding. 

Holds with two outcomes generally come up to less than 5%, but bets placed with dozens of outcomes can go as high as 50%.